The Past is not Predictive of the Future
It is hard not to predict the future from the past. The whole basis of our judgement often comes from our past experiences. Even public resources explain in gambling, say the roulette table, that just because red was rolled 10 times straight doesn’t mean black’s chances have increased - the events are independent. However, majority of people think that a number or colour may appear since it hasn’t appeared yet - this even has a definition named The Gamblers Fallacy.
My curiosity runs deeper to the predictions we make in day to day life.
Are gambling predictions different to the real world predictions?
If we talk about casino games, these have extremely clever win ratios that are stacked against the player - they are calculable. For instance, most people don’t realise that placing a bet on red in roulette has less than a 50% chance of winning (see image below).

Therefore in the case of casino games, it is an artificial world with calculable odds - this does not reflect the real world.
However, when we wander outside of the bricked fortress with no windows, gambling in the real world becomes odds determined by past events and pundits. Similar to real life, I would argue each person is a pundit in their own way and creates odds for predictions in their day to day life. The two suddenly share many similarities.
Can you give an example please?
Alright, my …


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